Marvel’s Thunderbolts Hits China: Can It Reignite Hollywood’s Box Office Appeal?

Marvel’s latest blockbuster, Thunderbolts, opened in Chinese theaters on April 30, 2025, becoming the first major U.S. film to make its debut in China amidst escalating trade tensions. With Hollywood films facing an increasingly tough reception in China, Thunderbolts could serve as a pivotal test for the future of American films in one of the world’s largest markets.

The Thunderbolts film, a Marvel ensemble piece, features some of the most beloved antiheroes from the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU), including Yelena Belova (played by Florence Pugh), Bucky Barnes (Sebastian Stan), and Red Guardian (David Harbour). With these characters leading the charge, the film was poised to make waves. However, it’s not just the film's content that’s making headlines—it’s the circumstances surrounding its release.

China has been tightening its grip on the foreign film market for several years now, and recent trade tensions between the U.S. and China have only compounded the issue. Since 2021, China has been limiting the number of foreign films it allows into theaters, opting instead to promote homegrown productions. With Hollywood films facing stricter approval processes and a shift toward local content, Thunderbolts enters the market at a critical juncture.

Interestingly, Thunderbolts managed to secure approval for release in China before the latest round of tariffs and diplomatic spats took hold, a crucial factor that could have impacted its ability to enter Chinese cinemas at all. This move has led many industry analysts to view the film’s performance as a barometer for Hollywood’s future in China. Will Thunderbolts succeed, or will it fall short like other recent Marvel films?

The situation is challenging. In 2024, a total of 42 American films were released in China. However, box office returns for these films have been disappointing, with many failing to meet expectations. Disney’s Snow White, for example, earned only $1.24 million, while Captain America: Brave New World brought in just $14.3 million. These numbers pale in comparison to the success of domestic Chinese films, such as the animated feature Ne Zha 2, which grossed over $1.1 billion. This contrast highlights the growing dominance of Chinese productions in the local market.

Industry experts point to a few key factors contributing to this trend. One of the main reasons for Hollywood’s diminishing appeal in China is the rise of high-quality local content that resonates more deeply with Chinese audiences. Over the past decade, China’s film industry has grown significantly, learning from its collaborations with Hollywood and creating movies that are better attuned to local tastes and cultural sensitivities. As a result, the competition is fiercer, and the U.S. has struggled to maintain the same level of influence it once had in the region.

Stanley Rosen, a political science professor at the University of Southern California, highlighted that Chinese films are increasingly seen as more relevant to local viewers, who now have access to a wider variety of content that reflects their own culture and values. As Hollywood films struggle to adapt to these changing dynamics, many wonder if the days of the U.S. dominating the Chinese box office are over.

So, what does this mean for Thunderbolts? While the film was approved for release before the most recent political tensions flared up, its performance will be critical in determining the future of U.S. films in China. If the movie fails to draw large crowds, it may signal a shift in the way Chinese audiences view Hollywood content, and future American film releases could face even greater challenges. Conversely, a strong box office showing could offer hope for Hollywood, signaling that there’s still a market for U.S. productions in China.

At its core, the release of Thunderbolts in China is more than just about one film. It’s a test of Hollywood’s ability to navigate a shifting global market and maintain relevance in the face of geopolitical and cultural change. As China’s domestic film industry continues to thrive, Hollywood will need to find new ways to engage audiences, adapt to local tastes, and weather the storm of international trade tensions. Thunderbolts is just the beginning of what could be a transformative period for the global film industry.